Gold is on fire, but the smartest way to get in is via gold ETFs
By: Tavaga Research
Gold brings a glint to our eyes. The rare metal’s allure is universal. We have dyed it in different colors to suit our sartorial needs, moulded it in biscuits and blocks to stash away, and held on to it dearly for its inherent value.
But unknown to many, we do not need to deal with physical gold to unlock its worth. Paper gold such as gold ETFs (exchange-traded funds) is a veritable means of buying into gold’s timeless appeal. Gold ETFs are not far removed from the pricing of actual gold and don’t have the drawbacks of physical gold.
The quicker we familiarise ourselves with paper gold and gold ETFs the better because there is a gold rally afoot, creating an opportunity to diversify our portfolio.
Harried investors, amid global economic uncertainty, have been moving their money from equities to the yellow metal, considered a safe haven (evident during the Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy and multiple other instances of increased volatility in the past).
Global Gold Price 2 May 2022 ($1816.7) has increased by 0.18%, the Gold Price is the same in the Indian market ( ₹47410).
In dollar terms, the price of gold went up to an all-time high of over $2039 an ounce in March, coming down to the upper $1941 in April 2022. It rose by 9.8% from April 30, 2021 to April 30st, 2022.
This would then be a good time to consider gold’s role, especially if we lacked the non-interest asset in our investment instruments. The need of the hour is stability, and gold would infuse it in our portfolios, no matter how the money market fares.
The high prices have seen gold jewellery demand soften for now. But there is no need to regret not being able to buy more gold ornaments. The traditional ways we are most familiar with for investing in gold are becoming redundant with options such as gold ETFs coming to the fore.
It helps that gold’s value steadily increases, even if it can’t beat inflation. The average gold jewellery buyer is spellbound by its role as a symbol of wealth and social security in our multicultural society, both urban and rural.
If we look beyond the cultural symbolism of physical gold, it will dawn on us how wasteful it is as an investment. As elaborated here, gold ornaments see us paying anywhere between 5 and 25 per cent extra as making charges and there is the price paid for impurities.
Gold bars and coins, which are 99 per cent pure, turn out to be difficult to liquidate as well, as banks, which sell them, don’t always buy them back.
Besides the loss of value, physical gold brings with it the need for safe storage, with the onerous task falling on us. Even paid bank lockers don’t guarantee its safety.
Paper gold, on the other hand, bets on the price of gold to give us returns, such as gold ETFs, without the concomitant problems.
So, what are gold ETFs, really? They are exchange-traded funds, introduced in 2007 in India, which have gold as the underlying asset. The price of standard gold bullion, which is 24 carat and 99.9 percent pure, is tracked by these funds. We can consider them to be dematerialized forms of physical gold.
We can consider them to be dematerialized forms of physical gold.
As new units are bought by the end customers such as retail investors, the fund manager buys physical gold, and stores and insures it with a custodian bank. Authorized participants are tasked with the purchase and sale of physical gold to moderate the cost of the ETF units.
As of May 2019, Sebi has allowed ETFs to invest in exchange-traded commodity derivatives (ETCDs), a financial instrument, provided they have gold as the underlying commodity. The effect of combining ETCDs and physical gold on the volatility of an ETF is yet to be determined as it is still early days.
Expect us to have more on this soon. Meanwhile, we sum up 11 key features that make gold ETFs a worthy addition to our portfolios:-
We would need to look at these data points before picking a gold ETF from the country’s leading funds:-
Assets under management (AUM) – A higher AUM indicates a busier gold ETF, with more clients and portfolios than others. It bodes well for liquidity.
Net Asset Value (NAV) – It denotes the ETF’s unit price and should be compared with the spot gold prices to find the extent of digression. Nav is calculated by dividing the assets in the fund’s portfolio, except the liabilities, by the outstanding shares/units of the fund.
Returns – The profit made by an ETF portfolio would be its returns or income
Performance deviation – There would still be a difference between the returns on spot gold prices in rupees and gold ETFs, and it affects profitability. The smaller the deviation, the more value for us. The deviation is due to the fund’s cash holdings and expenses (leads to tracking error) and the cost of managing the ETF (called the expense ratio). Management cost for running the fund is low compared to actively managed funds such as mutual funds, but can still amount to 0.35-0.8 per cent a year.
| Gold ETF Fund |
| Axis Gold ETF |
| Aditya Birla Sun Life Gold ETF |
| HDFC Gold ETF |
| ICICI Prudential Gold Exchange Traded Fund |
| IDBI Gold ETF |
| Kotak Gold Exchange Traded Fund |
| Quantum Gold Fund (an ETF) |
| Nippon India Gold ETF (GOLDBEES) |
| SBI Gold Exchange Traded Scheme (Gold ETF SBI) |
| UTI GOLD Exchange Traded Fund |
Source: NSE, Tavaga Research |
Step 1 – Open an online trading and Demat account with a broker, by supplying the requisite identity documents; choose the broker for its low brokerage (or no brokerage with brokers such as Upstox, a discount brokerage), ease of transaction and research support
Step 2 – Log in to the Demat account and load money to enable trading
Step 3 – Choose the gold ETF
Step 4– Decide on the number of units to be bought and order, or refer to this blog on setting up a SIP-like arrangement
Step 5 – Demat account will be debited for ETF trade and brokerage, if applicable
Step 6 – Units of gold ETF will be credited to the Demat account on the day of trade
Besides the fund’s expense ratio, albeit low, we also pay for brokerage every time we trade in gold ETFs, just as with stock trading. The brokerage can be avoided if we opt for a discount broker.
Gold ETFs don’t require us to pay GST when buying them.
The taxation on gold ETFs kicks in when we sell our units for a profit, in the form of capital gains tax. If we sell within three years of buying the units, i.e. hold them for less than 36 months, we would be liable for short term capital gains tax according to our income tax slab rate.
For profiting off holdings held for over three years, we would have to pay long term capital gains tax of 20 percent, after indexation benefits (ie. accounting for inflation on the purchase price).
The risk with gold ETFs, which otherwise is also a strength, is the link with domestic spot gold prices. Being ETFs, these instruments are not geared to outperform actual gold prices but move in line with them as they track the index. It would also mean, gold ETFs won’t stray too far away from gold prices (apart from the tracking error margin) and would be sheltered from any whimsical calls of a fund manager.
We would need to remember gold prices in India are affected by international market trends as well. So, market-rate fluctuations of gold would have an impact on the gold ETF NAV too.
Stock markets and currency markets had taken a pounding across the world.
With money markets wavering, gold’s glitter has become brighter for investors. Its sturdy existence has inspired more confidence than a volatile economy.
Ask the central banks of the world, many of which have mopped up 668 tonnes of gold in all, in 2019, the highest since 2000, according to the World Gold Council.
RBI reported India Gold Reserves at 41.338 USD bn in Feb 2022, with its gold reserves increasing from $39.87 billion in Jan 2022. Beefing up gold reserves is traditionally done to reduce reliance on the US dollar as a reserve asset by central banks.
With the covid-19 pandemic striking the world in March 2020, stock markets across the globe witnessed a huge plunge. In fact, right after the first case of the virus was detected in China in January 2020, gold prices shot up by 38% to Rs. 38,694 per 10 grams. Gold has time and again turned out to be a safe haven for investors, during economic uncertainty, be it for any geopolitical reason.
Furthermore, the clairvoyance of the central banks has heralded the current international gold rush, triggered by a perfect storm building up — US-China trade tensions, with the potential to become a full-fledged trade war, the slowdown in China and India’s economies, interest rate cuts by central banks of all sizes, and currency devaluations.
When the US Federal Reserve (US’ central bank) slashed interest rates for the first time in a decade, the end of July 2019, US President Donald Trump declared a 10 per cent tariff on $300-billion worth of Chinese imports. Not one to take it on the chin, China let its currency (the renminbi) go above 7 yuan on the dollar, an unpleasant surprise as it was an 11-year low, and stalled the purchasing of US farm goods.
Such economic nationalism is not isolated and can be seen in movements like Brexit, America First, and widespread anti-immigration discourse. It bodes ill for open trade relations, turning the focus on the need to hedge investments from fickle economic pressures. Gold shines on as a safe haven, in this light.
The confidence in the dollar, powering global markets throughout, could also get chipped away as the US prints more money to repay its ever-rising national debt. Gold can hold its own as a payment method in case of currency devaluation.
Following the US-China financial sparring, three central banks (of India, New Zealand, and Thailand) cut interest rates by more than expected, to spur their economies. It dragged down bond yields worldwide, making gold, which does not work on yielding interest, seem attractive in contrast.
In July 2019, the IMF (International Monetary Fund), the global lending agency, revised its growth forecast for 2019 to 3.2 per cent, a downward revision of 0.1 per cent, in the light of an imminent trade war.
India has been buffeted by the global deflationary headwinds too. To compound its woes, the country’s economy is in the middle of sluggish industrial production and job generation, spreading further gloom.
But rising prices also stymie buyers of gold jewellery and bars. That is where gold ETFs come in, which let us get in at the minimum gold price possible at a given time, without a premium attached to it. Observers say the drop in demand for physical gold will be offset by demand from central banks for hedging and by gold ETF buyers, helping maintain the rally.
A case in point being the rise in holdings in the world’s largest gold-backed ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, by 7.3 per cent in 2019.
Gold ETFs in India have previously seen net outflows in assets under management (AUMs). However, as of December 2020, the holdings stood their ground at ₹14,173.85 crores, continuing the increasing trend from previous months.
Indian investors have secured better returns from gold over the years than their global counterparts.
Gold has grown from Rs 4,300 per 10 gm and Rs 28,623.50 per 10 gm in the past 20 and 5 years respectively, to Rs. 53,730 per 10 gm as of December 2020, faring better in India due to a weak rupee (against the US dollar).
The World Gold Council says since 2000, investment demand for gold has increased by 15 per cent on average every year, worldwide.
| Timeless and malleable Gold remains a timeless metal for adornment and investment. The noble element is non-corrosive and malleable, and the investing world has found its own ways of making the most of it through paper gold. Gold is considered safer in choppy weather because it protects against currency fluctuations, finding favour with central banks. It helps that gold’s price is governed by global macroeconomics, so it acts as a foil to Indian market instruments. Even though gold mining has picked up, boosting supply, growing demand has balanced out gold prices, not letting the increased supply dent it. |
Gold ETFs can bolster our portfolio with the relative price stability afforded by the rare metal. Gold is a strategic asset and not just a tactical one.
Allocating 5-10 per cent of our investments in gold ETFs could be a safety net against unexpected slumps in equity indices. If we are living through a particularly tough slump in the money markets, we can increase our gold ETF holdings for a couple of years to ride it out. Those above forties could also amp up their gold investment to 15 percent for greater security.
There are options such as gold mining funds and gold Fund of Funds (FoF) / gold mutual fund schemes, which is just another type of mutual fund, e-gold or digital gold, besides the more well known sovereign gold bonds (SGB).
A gold FoF / gold mutual fund scheme invests in gold ETFs but does not need a Demat account, whereas, in the case of gold ETFs, a demat-cum-trading account is necessary.
A few financial institutions including brokerages offer e-gold in partnership with MMTC. SGBs are issued by the RBI, every few months, with the earlier ones sold on the secondary market.
SGB’s redemption is not taxed and it earns us 2.5 per cent interest a year. However, they are less liquid than gold ETFs because of their maturity period of eight years and a lock-in period of five years. On the other hand, gold ETFs are taxed as discussed above, and the holders of gold ETFs do not receive any interest payment, unlike SGBs.
E-gold has been known to give slightly higher returns than gold ETFs and don’t have management fees but incurs a wealth tax for holdings above Rs 30 lakh, unlike gold ETFs.
The economic ups and downs since the global downturn in 2008 have proved that even gold can get volatile. Investors, worldwide, turn to gold if large economies suffer a setback but drop it when recovery is in sight. However, investing 10 percent of our money in paper gold such as gold ETFs is considered a smart move in the current times.
If we choose a gold ETF, it can act as a hedge as we approach retirement or in troubled times.
No, an investor cannot get any physical gold from gold ETFs. The transactions are fully online.
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