The paper published by Raghuram Rajan and Viral Acharya addresses how the PSBs face the systematic risk of inadequate loan disbursing standards and ineffective resolution processes
By: Tavaga Research
With the world economies eyeing the fag end of the pandemic, a need to introduce well-structured reforms is key in ensuring systemic stability. Raghuram Rajan, ex-RBI Chairman, and Viral Acharya, ex-RBI Deputy Governor have attempted to propose the said reforms for the banking sector of India. The paper, in addition to the management of public sector banks (PSBs) and bad loans, also touched upon strengthening risk management at banks.
Credit growth is considered an important function of growth in the gross domestic product (GDP). As for ideal emerging market trends, India is operating at a low credit to GDP ratio of less than 60 percent. The reason for such a trend is that banks in India stick to high-quality borrowers and there is an entire section of the economy waiting to be tapped. However, low credit penetration is not consistent with a high proportion of non-performing assets (NPAs) in India. As cited in the paper, Gross NPA to total assets ratio stood at 8.5 percent for the banking sector as a whole, and 11.3 percent for PSBs. Ironically, high-quality borrowers have contributed significantly to asset downgrades whereas default rates on loans provided by micro-credit institutions have been lower. The non-banking finance, in the form of housing finance and asset-based finance, has emerged as an alternative to traditional bank finance. Unfortunately, the NBFC sector has also been under stress as witnessed in the recent NBFC crisis concerning ILF&S and Dewan Housing Finance.
The paper addresses how the PSB sector faces the systemic risk of inadequate loan disbursing standards and ineffective resolution processes of distressed sectors.
The private undertaking of infrastructure projects has become a trend, which points to the long-term capital investment needs of such projects. The highest-quality borrowers have resorted to capital markets, such as equity and bond markets, for their borrowing needs. With such competition in place, the quality of lending for banks has come into question. Banks are typically left with risky infrastructure projects which may or may not turn cash-positive. Instead of lending down the credit curve, PSBs may stick to financing the Government instead of undertaking new loans. These PSBs are unable to strike a balance between ‘playing it safe’ and ‘betting on risky’. Essentially, public sector banking is unable to grow to its fullest potential being aversive to new business.
Catering to deposits has also become a costly affair for banks because households now have convenient access to financial markets. PSBs are also losing out on deposit share of retail lending and private banks are dominating the market. PSBs are torn between their sole purpose of existence to serve the public and the ability to sustain the increasing competition in the banking space.
In case of a stressed loan, the bank typically resorts to either ever-greening (giving new loans to service old loans) or loan restructuring. Ever-greening involves extending the term of the loan and has an opportunity cost of missing out on deploying capital toward better quality borrowers. Restructuring, on the other hand, is a more comprehensive manner of treating stressed debt that involves a reduction of interest rate, conversion of a portion of the loan to equity, and even writing down the value of the loan.
A loan is eligible for restructuring only if it is classified as a non-performing loan. Once classified as NPA, the bank has to create provisions for such loans. Provisioning smoothens the effect of bad loans over a period on the bank’s balance sheet and the revenues of the bank do not experience a sudden event. However, provisioning for bad loans translates into low Government revenues or higher commitment to recapitalize banks. Provisioning makes the bank look good on paper, which overstates the bank’s capacity to disburse more loans. If the realization of bad loans is not as per estimations of recovery rates, the pressure falls on the taxpayers to recapitalize the bank.
Numerous recommendations tend to make better loans, which stresses the importance of better project evaluation units within the internal framework of the bank. A shift from asset-based lending to cash-flow based lending is suggested by the ex-RBI officials. Cash-flow based lending is linking the covenants of loan agreements to leverage and liquidity performance of the borrowers. Such a method of lending is bound to lead to a proactive system of provisioning and proficiently automate risk management.
Making better loans also means minimizing fraud. RBI has set aggregate group lending limits and must impose them when the economy meets demand revival.
The paper deliberates on how the change in ownership structure for PSBs is not necessarily limited to re-privatization. The following is a summary of how the PSBs can bring a positive change in the management to better align operational efficiency with objectives:
The ex-RBI officials urge the banking sector to manage the interest rate risk based on clearly outlined strategies. The paper underscores the importance of statutory liquidity requirements (SLR) in presence of liquidity of coverage ratios (LCR). Encouraging mark-to-market accounting on treasury securities will pass through the changes in the interest rate in economic value terms. The adoption of IFRS/Ind accounting standards will help better adapt to the changing scenario globally. Banks will resort to interest rate risk derivatives to hedge against variations in earnings attributed to mark-to-market accounting. Credit derivatives, such as credit default swaps and loan guarantees, can also be used to manage credit risk.
Another key issue discussed in the paper was concerned with the pass-through of RBI policy rate cuts to end consumers. To better offer the benefits of rate cuts, banks must decide to link the loan rates across sectors to the policy repo rate.
Long overdue reforms on better loan underwriting, monitoring, recovery, and robust risk management are the only ways to ease the pressure on the banking sector in India. For India to attain its GDP and development goals, the banking sector will act as a catalyst. Re-capitalization is not the only solution to provide relief due to the country’s mounting debt-to-GDP ratio and fiscal deficit entering double digits. The pandemic is a call to action for the Government on taking the reforms necessary to capitalize on the looming opportunities.
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