Source: Tavaga Research
Dogecoin, a cryptocurrency that started as a meme or mere joke, rallied by 200% in April 2021. The rally sparked an increasing interest of Indians in cryptocurrencies as the value of Dogecoin increased to $0.68688, up 100% in May 2021 (from Rs. 10 to Rs. 50 in Rupee Terms). However, it has dropped to the levels of $0.16 today (a fall of more than 70% from its highs).
Bitcoin also caught attention as it rallied in the last quarter of FY21. However, it is currently trading at $29,402 after touching record highs of $64,778 (per Bitcoin) in May 2021. You can read more about crypto and crypto trading here.
In India, the tussle between the Reserve Bank (RBI) and the Apex court (SC) on their opinions on the trade of cryptocurrency remains a matter of grave confusion and unrest. Both the regulating bodies have multiple different opinions and judgments on the trade of this type of currency and their impact on the economic and financial health of the nation. The Security and Exchange Board of India(SEBI) has however expressed its distress with the companies dealing and owning any form of cryptocurrency.
The government to keep up with the worldwide trend has started to discuss and debate on an introduction of a bill to regulate or ban cryptocurrencies. It is also alleged that the administration is trying to release its own regulated digital currency.
The rally in various cryptocurrencies has been surreal and the future is uncertain in terms of their value.
In February 2021, Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, tweeted that Tesla will start accepting Bitcoins as a way of payment. This tweet sent Bitcoin prices soaring to record highs as it hinted at increased global acceptance and increased confidence. Internationally, HNIs and funds are buying more shares of crypto trading platforms.
ARK funds also recently bought $64 million worth of shares of Coinbase, a crypto trading platform, and a crypto wallet. The crypto trading volumes are increasing every day with more investors dipping their feet in this new so-called asset class.
On the other hand, Turkey recently banned trading, mining, and possession of cryptos across the country, brimming a negative sentiment. China has also banned the mining and trading of cryptos but possession is still legal and draws no penalty. Some countries are linking crypto transactions to criminal activity and acts of money laundering. The crucial reason behind the bans by several nations is the lack of regulations by any sovereign institution with regards to cryptocurrency. Cryptos could potentially also disrupt the financial markets and render the monetary policy useless.
The RBI in 2018 banned the trading, mining, and possession of cryptos across the country. The ban led to major unrest within the crypto community in India with the ban being revoked by the apex court in March 2020.
Currently, the industry estimates are that more than 7 million investors have invested a sum close to USD 1 Billion in cryptos in India, although no official data is available. In such a scenario, a ban on trading or possession of cryptos is unlikely in India as that will wipe out billions of investor wealth. But increased regulations on cryptos are highly likely which will stir a negative sentiment around the digital currency.
In recent developments, the government has asked companies to disclose all transactions of digital currencies in their balance sheets, making the industry more transparent.
First thing’s first, Cryptos are not a type of investment, they are a digital currency with no means of generating future cash flows. Without official backing for the currency, cryptos are just highly volatile digital currencies whose value is not supported by any financial system or organisation. The values are determined by the community and the price could go up or go to 0 in the coming years.
Having said that, cryptos are a very high-risk instrument to park your money in. Tavaga maintains its stance that Cryptos like Bitcoin, Ether or Dogecoin, etc. are high-risk and they still have to establish themselves. The digital currencies have no intrinsic value and have no underlying also to derive their value. They are highly speculative and retail investors must consider staying away from these cryptocurrencies unless they’re regulated in India.
Disclaimer: The above write is solely for educational purposes only. It should not be considered as investment advice of any form directly or indirectly.
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